Event Contract Bundles Lift Prediction Market Volumes

In this photo illustration, apps for online prediction market sites are shown on an electronic device on Feb. 25, 2026, in Chicago, Illinois. The growing popularity of combo contracts on online prediction platforms is generating soaring volume figures even as those multi-leg bets account for a small fraction of total platform transactions, CNBC Finance reported on Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2026. Combos stack multiple event contracts together and only pay out if every leg wins, mirroring the mechanics of parlays on traditional sportsbooks. Driven heavily by the start of the NFL season, these instruments have reshaped trading metrics across the sector, building on regulatory scrutiny highlighted in reports such as CFTC flags prediction markets' 'mentions' contracts for higher manipulation risk.

Regulatory Reporting Mechanics And Notional Volume

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission requires prediction market exchanges to measure every trade as $1 of notional volume regardless of the actual cash deployed. Binary event contracts settle between $0 and $1, meaning market makers taking the opposite side generate $1 in total volume. Because combos can carry payouts far larger than $1, traders can risk pennies while exchanges record thousands of dollars in volume, as tracked in proposals like Kalshi asks CFTC to permit margin trading for event contracts.

Data from Dune analyzed in September showed distinct variations between single and bundled bets. On Kalshi, the average cash placed on a single contract on Sept. 27 was less than 47 cents, whereas the average for a combo contract was about 9 cents. During September, combos comprised 58% of Kalshi's trading volume while accounting for less than 13% of total transactions on the platform. Beyond sports, combos captured over 35% of total volume share on Kalshi.

Platforms have prioritized these products as they expand. Last month, combos accounted for more than 50% of notional volume on Kalshi. Rival Polymarket made combos a priority for its official U.S. platform launch in May, and those instruments now represent nearly 50% of daily volume on Polymarket U.S.

Market Perception Versus Traditional Sportsbooks

Industry participants warn that headline volume figures can create a misleading impression of platform scale. The multi-leg contracts are helping platforms claim higher numbers with lower realistic cash output, according to Chris Park, a researcher and founder of MSR Decode. The rise of these sports-related event contracts has coincided with heavy pressures on traditional online sportsbooks, including FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment and DraftKings, whose stocks have plunged 70% and 45%, respectively, over the past year.

Analysts caution investors against drawing direct parallels between prediction market notional volume and sportsbook handle, which measures the total dollar amount wagered. When a client buys a deep out-of-the-money contract or a combo, prediction markets may record dollar volumes between 20 to 100 times greater than sportsbooks due to federal reporting standards, explained Rich Jaycobs, an independent advisor to prediction markets seeking regulatory approval from the CFTC.

Kalshi spokesperson Jack Such defended the reporting standards, stating that the platform's notional volume does not overstate activity and noting that participants can evaluate other metrics if preferred. Meanwhile, platforms are also weighing alternative gauges like taker volume, which measures participants who scoop up liquidity rather than provide it, to better track trader demand. Kyle Gesuelli, the company's head of revenue and analytics, noted that examining taker volume on buying yes outcomes for combos provides a clearer picture of underlying activity. Disclosure notes that CNBC and Kalshi maintain a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.