Trump Tariff Refunds Could Total $182 Billion: Estimates

A US Federal judge ordered the government to start planning refunds for tariffs that were collected under former President Donald Trump. President Donald Trump's tariffs were imposed using emergency powers, but in late February, the Supreme Court of the United States said that they were illegal. After this decision, the US government may return $168 billion to $182 billion to importers.

Trade Senior Judge Richard ‌Eaton told the US Customs and Border Protection agency to give a report on how they will refund the amount, and the judge said very clearly that all the illegally collected tariffs must be returned to all those who paid these amounts.

Economists at the University of Pennsylvania estimated that the CBP has collected up to $182 billion in gross revenue from ⁠tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act between February 4, 2025, and February 23, 2026. Using another method, they find that revenue is around $177 billion. CBP last showed that $133.5 billion had already been collected on December 14.

The Budget Lab at Yale University, another research group, finds that slightly lower than the PWBM estimates, their analysis says that tariff revenue reached about $168 billion by February 19. They have also found that tariffs introduced in 2025 increased by $194.8 billion compared to 2022 to 2024.

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After the Supreme Court ruling, the Trump administration ​imposed a temporary 10% global ​tariff under Section 122 of ⁠the Trade Act of 1974 and said that it could rise to 15%. And CRFB said the Section 122 tariffs can ⁠replace over ​half the revenue lost due to the Supreme Court ruling at 10% and ​over three-quarters at 15%.

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