Helium Shortage: Long-Term Contracts vs. Spot Price Spike

Helium spot prices have tripled since the war with Iran began, former Air Liquide executive Rich Brooke told CBS News for a 60 Minutes report that aired on Oct. 18. That figure comes from a single source. In March, Reuters quoted consultant Phil Kornbluth as saying spot prices had doubled, and noted that most helium is sold under long-term contracts, so price signals "often emerge slowly." The spot headlines say little about the contract book, where most of the gas is priced.

The two largest U.S.-listed industrial gas companies describe it differently. Linde says its helium business is 85% to 90% contracted and its helium prices are rising. Air Products' latest quarterly report still shows lower helium pricing over nine months, a slide its executives said began well before the war. This piece compares what Linde, Air Products and a small Montana producer have said and filed about price. No filing quantifies a contract price increase, so TradeFlock does not estimate one.

Interest jumped as the segment aired: Google Trends shows hourly U.S. searches for "helium" peaking at 8 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18 at more than 14 times their earlier level, with "helium stocks" up 500% over the week.

How Qatar's Outage Became a Global Helium Shortage

The U.S. Geological Survey's Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 puts world output at 190 million cubic meters in 2025. Qatar produced 63 million, about a third, and the U.S. 81 million. The U.S. exported 38 million, nearly half of what it sold, and CBS, citing Census Bureau data, said exports are up 70% since the war began. The Bureau of Land Management closed the sale of the Federal Helium System to Messer in June 2024, and the USGS lists the government stockpile as "None."

CBS said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in February trapped about a third of global helium supply in the Persian Gulf. QatarEnergy's March 24 update said missile attacks on its Ras Laffan hub on March 18 and March 19 damaged two LNG trains and one gas-to-liquids train, and "materially reduced output" of helium and other products. CBS reported that the Qataris expect full repairs to take at least three years. Long timelines are not unique to gas: copper and transformer shortages are stretching U.S. transmission projects into 2028, and the Middle East conflict has fed into heating oil prices.

Why Spot Prices and Contract Prices Move Differently

Linde's second-quarter 10-Q describes its merchant customer agreements, a category that includes helium, as usually three- to seven-year supply agreements that generally carry no minimum purchase requirements or volume commitments. TradeFlock's read is that such agreements reprice as they renew, but the filing does not say how helium contracts reprice.

Rationing has reached some buyers. CBS reported that one of three suppliers to Polar Semiconductors has put the company on allocation, which it called essentially a rationing program, and that a University of Chicago lab's supplier offered 50% of last year's helium. CBS does not say whether either buyer holds a contract, so the report does not show whether contract cover protects against allocation. Rationing is a different thing from being repriced overnight.

What Linde Says About Helium Prices

On its May 1 first-quarter call, Linde's chief financial officer, Matt White, said the helium business is, depending on the time, 85% to 90% contracted. First-quarter helium sales were roughly flat, with prices down a couple of points and volumes up a couple. The Iran conflict began about two-thirds into the quarter, he said, and average pricing had been rising since, though "we're a few percent below" on the year-over-year comparison he had described. "Likely that price will continue to go up and roll its way through," White said, adding that he did not expect significant spot sales this year. Linde's first-quarter 10-Q shows the earlier weakness: in Asia Pacific, "Price was flat in the quarter largely due to helium decrease which offset other positive price in the segment."

By the July 31 call, the tone had shifted. Chief Executive Sanjiv Lamba said, "We have had the pricing move along as well, which has been a good thing," and that Linde had signed new customers to long-term contracts. White cited "strong price improvement" but also higher dislocation costs, so helium's dollar contribution was positive while its margin effect was "a little bit dilutive." Lamba said normalization would probably stretch into early next year. Linde's second-quarter 10-Q says Asia Pacific price rose 2%, with no helium comment, and shows intersegment helium sales of $123 million in the quarter, up from $107 million, but $220 million for six months against $219 million, so flat. Intersegment sales are internal transfers, not a price.

What Air Products Reported, and Why It Is Not a Lag

Air Products' quarterly report for the period ended June 30, filed July 30, says that over nine months, "Pricing was flat as improvement across non-helium product lines was offset by lower helium pricing." Asian pricing for the nine months fell 1%, which the company tied to helium.

It would be a mistake to read that as post-strike lag. The nine months run from October to June, and Intel's 10-Q puts the start of the war at Feb. 28, so about five of them came before it. At a J.P. Morgan industrials conference on March 18, Chief Executive Eduardo Menezes said helium pricing had been "under significant pressure" for "the last several quarters," and Chief Financial Officer Melissa Schaeffer said, "For the last couple of years, we've seen pricing take a hit on helium." Asked about prices since the conflict began, Menezes said, "you cannot change that much in two weeks."

In the same transcript, analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas said he believed 95% of the helium business was under long-term contracts, and Schaeffer answered, "Correct." Menezes said the crisis gave Air Products "a better chance to renew these contracts in a better terms than we anticipated before," while adding it was "only two or three weeks" in. The June quarter cannot separate the war's effect from a slide already under way. The quarter ending in September may.

The $285 Helium Contract and Why It Is Hard to Compare

On April 27, U.S. Energy Corp., since renamed Big Sky Industrial, announced a five-year, 100% take-or-pay deal with an unnamed investment-grade industrial gas company. The buyer will take up to 14.4 million cubic feet a year from a Montana plant at $285 per thousand cubic feet of contained helium, paid at the plant gate, with the buyer covering transport, processing and downstream costs. The price rises with consumer inflation from March 1, 2028, and either side can ask to reset it in year three. At full rate the deal is worth about $4.1 million a year by TradeFlock's math. The plant is not operating yet: the release and Big Sky's August quarterly report target initial commercial operations for the first quarter of 2027.

Chief Executive Ryan Smith said in the release that the market's "constrained global supply and increasing demand for reliable volumes are supporting a step up in long-term pricing." The $285 is not a like-for-like benchmark. On an Oct. 1 Noble Capital Markets call, Smith said the transport, tolling and liquefaction-capacity costs that many producers do not deduct when they announce prices can range from $150 to $300, and that "you would have to add that cost on top of the all-in price that we are receiving" for an apples-to-apples comparison, according to a published transcript. TradeFlock treats the deal as evidence of contract terms, not of spot prices.

What a Helium ETF Would Actually Hold

For readers searching how to invest in helium, the Defiance Helium and Strategic Gases ETF, ticker HELI, is on the way. Its Sept. 25 prospectus said the fund had not yet started operating and set annual expenses at 0.67%, or $67 on $10,000. It tracks the MarketVector Helium and Strategic Gases Index, which targets 10 companies earning at least 50% of revenue from industrial and specialty gases, cryogenics or gas equipment. On Oct. 19 it listed Linde at 17.38%, Air Products at 16.51% and Air Liquide at 16.18%, together about half. Buyers mostly get diversified gas majors, which do not report total helium revenue.

What to Watch at Linde on Oct. 29 and Air Products on Nov. 5

Linde reports third-quarter results on Oct. 29. Air Products reports its fiscal fourth quarter on Nov. 5. At Linde, the questions are whether helium price gains show up in segment pricing, whether the margin dilution eases, and how many new long-term contracts it reports. At Air Products, the nine-month pricing language gives way to a full year, and Menezes' comment on renewals meets its first real test.

Seven months in, Linde says helium prices are rising and it is signing new long-term contracts, Air Products' latest filing still shows lower pricing, and neither company's filings say what contract buyers actually pay.

Illustration: TradeFlock USA