Gas Prices: Pump Price Slips as Crude Jumps 10.4%

The national average price of regular gasoline was $4.2988 a gallon on Sunday, Oct. 18, according to AAA, down from $4.3585 a week earlier and $4.4687 a month earlier. That is a drop of about 6 cents in a week and 17 cents in a month, yet crude oil is rising. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for November delivery settled at $101.41 a barrel on Friday, Oct. 16, up $9.56, or 10.41%, on the week and the seventh straight daily gain, according to Dow Jones Market Data via Morningstar. That weekly gain is for the November contract, which is the front month and expires around Oct. 20. WSJ market data shows the December contract settled at $99.02 the same day. By TradeFlock's reading, over the past week the pump price moved with gasoline futures more than with crude, though one week is a short window.

The pump price is still 41.4% above the $3.0408 AAA reported a year ago. By TradeFlock's estimate, a 15-gallon fill-up costs about $64.48 now against $45.61 a year ago, or $18.87 more.

Gasoline Futures Fell While Crude Rose

RBOB is the New York wholesale gasoline benchmark, set before taxes and retail margins. Front-month RBOB gasoline futures for November delivery settled at $3.2354 a gallon on Friday, down 5.98 cents, or 1.81%, on the week and lower for a second straight week, according to Dow Jones Market Data via Morningstar. The contract had hit its lowest settlement since Sept. 3 on Thursday, at $3.1802, then rose 5.52 cents on Friday. Since the Sept. 30 settlement, Morningstar reports RBOB is down 5.89% while WTI is up 12.15%. Crude's weekly gain of $9.56 a barrel works out to about 22.8 cents a gallon, because a barrel holds 42 gallons, by TradeFlock's estimate. Gasoline futures moved the other way.

AAA's price was $1.0634 above the RBOB settlement this week and $1.0633 above it the week before, using the prior Friday's settlement of $3.2952, by TradeFlock's reading. The pump price fell 5.97 cents while the futures contract fell 5.98 cents. That match is partly timing. The comparison sets a Sunday retail survey against Friday futures settlements, and AAA's price fell another cent from Saturday's $4.3085 even though RBOB rose 5.52 cents on Friday, which looks like retail lagging futures. It does not show that one caused the other.

The longer view shows $1.06 is not a fixed gap. On Sept. 18, AAA's price was $4.4687, and DTN reported that RBOB for October delivery, then the front month, settled at $3.5276 that day. That puts the gap at $0.9411 a month ago, by TradeFlock's reading, about 12 cents narrower than now. Over the month the pump price fell 17 cents, or 3.8%, while the RBOB settlement fell 29 cents, or 8.3%, from $3.5276 to this week's $3.2354. The two contracts are different delivery months, so the comparison is rough. It suggests the pump price has fallen more slowly than futures over the month, so retail prices have not tracked futures day by day.

The Gasoline-Crude Futures Spread Narrowed

The difference between what a barrel of gasoline sells for in futures and what a barrel of crude costs fell sharply. Using November contracts for both, and multiplying the gasoline price by 42, the spread was about $34.48 a barrel on Friday against about $46.55 a week earlier, a drop of roughly 26%, by TradeFlock's reading. In plain terms, gasoline futures did not follow crude higher. This is a measure of futures prices, not of any refiner's margin, because refiners buy different crudes and sell several products.

The Wall Street Journal reported that oil rose on Friday as conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine's renewed targeting of Russian refineries fueled supply concerns. It put Brent at $109.86, its highest settlement since May 19.

Diesel Is Moving the Other Way

AAA's national average for diesel was $6.3224 on Oct. 18, up from $6.2771 a week earlier and 73.9% above the $3.6365 of a year ago. That is a rise of 4.5 cents in a week while regular gasoline fell. AAA lists its record diesel price as $6.5276 on Sept. 22, 2026. TradeFlock has covered the record diesel price pressuring trucking, farming and aviation and Affirm CEO Max Levchin's warning that high gas prices are straining shoppers.

What to Watch Next

Friday's bounce in gasoline futures shows how quickly the picture can change. If RBOB holds above its Thursday low, the pump price has less room to fall, and if crude keeps climbing on supply news, the spread could widen again. TradeFlock is not forecasting a direction. AAA updates its national average daily, so the next few readings will show whether the pump price keeps following gasoline futures or starts to reflect crude. By TradeFlock's reading, drivers will feel changes in gasoline futures first and changes in crude only to the extent they feed through to gasoline. The figures here are as of AAA's Oct. 18 reading, checked at about 6:55 PM IST, and Friday's settlements.

Cover photo: Pumping gas by hand by MarkBuckawicki / Wikimedia Commons, CC0 (cropped and resized).